In The Lobby

WHAT WAS HE THINKING?

Of all the things that Sen. Robert Menendez could have said, why in the world would ha say this about the Belmar boardwalk reopening.

From the Daily Record:

The boardwalk's reconstruction began on Jan. 9. It required more than a half million screws, Mayor Matt Doherty said.

“I never thought I'd be so happy about a half million screws,” said Menendez, who noted Belmar plays a special role in the lives of the state's residents. “We have preserved that New Jersey birthright.”

Insert your own joke here.

WARMING UP TO 2016?

File this under the maybe he is thinking about 2016 and those conservatives after all file.

Gov. Chris Christie dismissed the likelihood of climate change on Monday when he was asked by a WNYC radio reporter whether Sandy could be linked to climate change.

Here's how Christie responded:

“I don’t think there’s been any proof thus far that Sandy was caused by climate change," Christie said Monday at a ceremony honoring the rebuilding of the boardwalk in Lavallette, N.J. "But I would absolutely expect that that’s exactly what WNYC would say, because you know liberal public radio always has an agenda.”

Those remarks were met with appreciative laughter from the crowd in Lavallette.

Now, why is this important, you ask. Well, one of the strikes that conservatives have against Christie is that he previously appeared to accept it as real -- when most conservatives and Republicans are highly skeptical that climate change is actually occurring.

Here's what Christie said about climate change when asked about a few years ago:

In 2011, the Republican governor called climate change “real,” going on to say that “human activity plays a role in these changes.”

"I can’t claim to fully understand all of this," he said in July 2011. "Certainly not after just a few months of study. But when you have over 90% of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role it’s time to defer to the experts."

That comment caused conservative heads to implode. Now, it's true, that Christie didn't walk back his prior support for the possibility that climate change change exists, but he did express some skepticism about it.

Poll after poll has shown Christie would be a leading contender for the presidency in 2016, if he can get past of a primary. And the only way he can get past a primary is if he has conservative support -- which he currrently does not.

THese commenta slone won't solve Christie's problem with conservatives.

But it's a start.

IS IT PRONOUNCED BUONO? OR LOSER?

Just how much trouble in the Buono campaign in?

When you're six months into a campaign, and you're putting out an ad telling people how to pronounce your name, it's safe to assume that your candidacy is in serious trouble.

Here's how the Associated Press describes the ad:

So Sen. Barbara Buono (BWOH’-noh), the candidate with the often-mispronounced name, has a new web ad telling voters who she is ... and is not.

In the ad starting Monday previewed by The Associated Press, Buono tells voters it’s not Boh-NOH’, as in Cher’s onetime soul mate, Sonny.

Nor is it Bono (BON’-oh), the lead signer from the rock band U2.
But it does rhyme with Cuomo, the Democrat governor of New York.

Christie has released two television commercials, one positive and one negative, while a Democratic Super PAC has been running anti-Christie ads.

Oh dear.

Maybe this ad would have made sense back in January, or December. Maybe it would have been a fun way to get people to know who Buono is.

But in May? Six months before the election, andl lless than a month before the primary? If voters still don't know who she is, she's got alot more problems that just the fact that people don't how to pronounce her name.

And we're not the only ones who think so.

For when a popular former governor of your same party then suggests that you may want to consider dropping out of the reace, then it's doubly safe to assume that your candidacy is floundering.

From the Ledger's conversation with former Govs. Brtendyn Byrne and Tom Kean:

Q: Sen. Barbara Buono is having trouble raising enough money to qualify for matching funds. Could this bode ill for other Democrats, as well?

GOV. BYRNE: Buono is way behind. I was way behind in 1977 and I was thinking, if it gets worse, I’m going to withdraw. It didn’t get worse. As a matter fact, it got better. But at one point I thought of dropping out in favor of a better-positioned candidate. I don’t know whether that consideration would appeal to Buono, but I would advise she make that evaluation.

GOV. KEAN: You were a good candidate. She’s not. The able candidates in the Democratic party all decided not to run this year, so they were left without a strong candidate. She stepped forward and now the party is living with the consequences of that. And they may be felt up and down the ticket.

But let's be serious. Even if Buono did drop out of the race, who would the Democrats put up in her place? No prominent Democrat was willing to stop forward before Buono, and given the polls -- and the scramble to replace Gov. Chris Christie -- we doubt there are many who want the job now.

But when you add all this up, inlcluding the fact that Christie is now starring in a multimillion dollar tourism ad buy, the real problem for Buono is that she better hope that people don't start thinking of pronouncing her name as L-O-S-E-R.

CHRISTIE'S ACHILLES HEEL?

Could property taxes give state Sen. Barbara Buono an opening in her uphill battle against Gov. Chris Christie?

If there's anything New Jerseyans hate more than property taxes, we don't know what it is.

But the news out of Christie's own Community Afairs Department show that under Christie, homeowners have paid 19 percent more in taxes since he took office, as compared to 11 percent under then-Gov. Jon S. Corzine.

Of course, the big reason for the difference is that Corzine had given out more in property tax rebates than Christie did.

But in an election year, when Buono is looking for something to shake some support away from the governor, the issue of property taxes could give her an opening.

But all that depends on how nimble Buono's campaign team is, an0 how deft they are at turning this against Christie.

So far, not so much.

But you can tell how nervous the governor is about the property tax record by how hard he took off after NJSotlight.com reporter Mark Magyar, who had written a story saying that New Jerseyans were paying more for property taxes under Christie than Corzine:

An analysis by NJ Spotlight found that net property taxes in New Jersey rose 18.6 percent in Christie's first three years in office, compared to 6 percent in Democrat Corzine's last three years in office.

The Republican governor lashed out at the author of the story, Mark Magyar, who was Republican Gov. Christie Whitman's deputy policy chief and policy director for independent candidate Chris Daggett's failed gubernatorial bid in 2009. That's the year Christie unseated Corzine.

"A totally ridiculous report from Chris Daggett's operative," Christie said during a campaign event today. "Apparently the Daggett people are still fighting the race that they didn't win last time."

Of course, what was remarkable about that was that on Tuesday, Christie's own Department of Community Affairs released its own report that said property taxes had risen 19 percent under Christie and 11 percent under Corzine.

From the Asbury Park Press:

A sharp hike in net property taxes at the start of Gov. Chris Christie’s term has been softened, but New Jersey homeowners on average pay nearly $1,200 more than when Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine left office.

Christie, who is up for re-election in November, currently stars in a new television campaign ad that includes the headline “Christie’s plan offers hope on property taxes.”

His plan has included overhauls of pensions and health benefits for public employees and a cap on local government taxes, but average net property taxes have risen 19 percent under Christie during his first three years in office. Corzine’s first three years showed an 11 percent increase, according to new data from the state Department of Community Affairs.

The data do not include the expected impact on property taxes to offset millions of dollars in lost tax revenue in beachfront towns hit by superstorm Sandy.

The reality is, Christie hjas an argumet to make. Ever since the pension and health benefits repform, combined with the 2 percent cap, have resulted in a dramatic slowing of property taxes.

And instead of lashing out at the reporter, the smart play for Christie would have been to remind the public that he wants to enact a $1,000 property tax credit, but that he has been blocked by Democrats in the Legislature.

Going after Magyar only showe that Christie is feeling vulnerable.

Of course, the state of play in the campaign being hwhat it is, Buono doesn't have the fmoney to launch a statewide advertisign campaign to convnince people that Christie is responsible for hikes in proepty taxes.

She did launch an Internet ad, but let's be serious, how many people besides hard core partisans are going to watch that?

The assumption has long been that if Christie loses this election, or his big lead, it will be because he did something to lose it, not because of Buono.

Lets see how quickly Christie pivots to campaigning for his property tax credit as a way to inoculate himself and his campaign against the property tax charge. For the truth is, the pension and health beneifts reform, and the 2 percent cap, will do more to keep taxes low than just throwing money at the problem.

But throwing a tax cut at the problem, combined with pushing for an end to abuses like sick and vacation leave payouts, is good campaign politics.

Attacking a reporter for reporting what your own government was going to concede a few days later is not.

BIG BROTHER REALLY IS WATCHING

No matter what elese you think of him, George Bush never did this:

Under his administration, the IRS never targeted liberal or progressive groups for extra scrutiny.

And the Justice Department never got the phone records of Assoociated Press reportersas part of a government probe.

But Barrack Obama did.

The irony here, of course, is that Obama keeps referring aback to the Bush administration to contrast his administration against.

But he really should have been referencing the Nixon administration, because that’s who he’s acting most like.

The idea of any government administration targeting opposition groups, or reporters, because they don’t like their agenda, or what they report, is chilling,.

Do we have a Bill of Rights under the Obama administration?

Or does the administration think it's really a Bill of Maybes?

As in maybe the president will let our phone conversations stay private today. Or maybe the president won’t target groups that don’t like him today.

The president and his minions hav4 way too much power to be engaging in this game of First Amendment hide and seek. As in now you see it, now you don’t.

It is positively chilling that the government can unleash its power after people it deems to be enemies. It means that none of us are safe.

Sure, Obama condemned the IRS today and promised swift retribution.

But who gave these low level employees the idea to go after Tea Party and concservative groups in the first place?

Are we to believe that they just got this idea all on their own?

Likewise, are we to believe that the Justice Depaartment on its own decided to check the incomeing and outgoing phone calls of AP reporters and editors? That Eric Holder pnever picked up the phone and cleared it with his boss?

Sorry, that’s a bridge too far.

If Obama really has nothing to hide, if he really was unaware of what was taking place, then h e needs to start cleaning house. And taking names.

The truth is, the president has had an easy ride from the media. The Benghazi scandal would have blown up long before now if he wasn’t.

The ultimate irony, of course, is that by targeting the press, Obama has targeted his own palace guard.

Reporters were outraged last week over Benghazi, and then again over the idea that the IRS was targeting groups because of their political beliefs..

If you thought Jay Carney had a rough press conference on Friday, just wait until Tuesday’s.

No one likes to think they've been played. And on Tuesday, Carney is going to be facing a roomful of them.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Did you catch the wall-to-wall coverage of Gov. Chris Christie’s lap band surgery?

If you did, that should tell you all you need to know about why state Sen. Barbara Buono is having so much trouble raising cash for her fledgling gubernatorial campaign.

Every cable network featured Christie all day long. They even carried his press conference live.

It was almost as if President Barack Obama had announced that he was undergoing Lab-Band surgery. Only in his case, it would be Lab-Expand surgery.

But that’s the point. They covered it like it was the president because all those networks believe Christie may well one day be president.

And they all saw his weight as an impediment to him ever getting there. So now that he’s taken care of that, they see Christie’s rise as inevitable.

Which means they’ve already assumed he wins re-election in November. And news flash: Democrats have made that assumption too.

There is a reason why One New Jerey is able to raise more money than Buono’s re-election campaign.

It’s because Christie keeps a naughty and nice list. And if Christie is going to win re-election, they know his power is going to extend beyond New Jersey. And one day, may even reach into Washington.

So if Chrsitie is going to win, as now seems likely, the thinking goes, why give money to Buono?

Of course, all this puts Buono in a no-win position. She can’t win without money, but if the conventional wisdom has it that she can’t win, she won’t raise any money.

Talk about a no-win scenario.

Especially when you consider all the high-profile Democrats that Christie has been keeping time with lately.

We’re not talking Camden County powerbroker Gerogre Norcross or Essex County boss Joe DiVinccnzo either.

In the video he did for the Legislative Correspondents Clutb, he got Democratic consultant James Carville, actor Alec Baldwin and even rocker Jon Bon Jovi to star in it with him.

Earlier this week , he spent the day with former Gov. Jim McGreevey.

Not bad for a Republican seeking re-election in a blue state.

But you know, there’s likely another clich� that Buono has run against.

Everybody loves a winner.

A loser, not so much. a

WHERE'S THE FLEECE?

Gov. Chriis Christie can certainly take a joke -- especially when he's the one making it. The governor's office released t his new video making fun of his trademark fleece, and it stars a plethora of guest stars, including Jon Bon Jovi, James Carville, even Alec Baldwin.

You can watch it here.

Daily Beast has a synopsis:

In the not-quite-viral video, the governor turned actor is at first unconcerned by the news that his precious fleece has disappeared from its glass case. “The fleece was so last year,” he scoffs. “I’m back in the Time 100 most influential people in the world. Bruce is my new best friend. I’m friends with Bon Jovi and now I’m back on Morning Joe!” But he soon discovers that his newfound clout came with a fleece attached. Mika and Joe are sick of him, he can’t get into a Bruce Springsteen show, and Jon Bon Jovi won’t give him the time of day. As the seven-minute-plus video carries on, we learn that James Carville is in cahoots with Hillary Clinton, who stole the fleece but accidentally left it with Alec Baldwin, whose wife, Hilaria, adheres to the “finders keepers” rule of life. This ultimate sequence is not only funny, but it makes the point that Christie can not only take a joke, but that he’s chummy enough with some pretty public Democrats that they’d be willing to appear in this silly video of his.

CHRISTIE TACKLES HIS WEIGHT

Gov. Chris Christie is getting into fighting shape, months before his re-election campaign -- and years before any potential presidential run. The governor revealed to the New York Post that he had undergone secret lap band surgery to lose weight.

CHRISTIE'S CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGE

How much trouble is Gov. Chris Christie in with conservatives?

Not here in New Jersey, where we think it's safe to say the majority of conservatives know what they can expect if state Sen. Barbara Buono is elected. Garden State conservatives might shake their heads at Christie, might even get mad at him occasionally, but they've seen what eight years of McGreevey/Codey/Corzine can do.

But nationally, there's growing evidence that conservatives aren't ready to embrace Christie, or trust him. And it all stems from that infamous bear hug of President Barack Obama right after superstorm Sandy pummeled the state.

Christie, of course, stoked the fires again this week, when he said on "Morning Joe" how Obama had kept every promise he made to him about Sandy.

From Politico:

“No,” he said flatly on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” when asked whether he regretted working with and lauding Obama after the devastating storm — something that occurred right ahead of the 2012 election and outraged some conservatives.

“Listen, the president has kept every promise that he made,” Christie said. “What I was saying at the time was, I was asked how the president was doing, I said, he’s doing a good job, he’s kept his word. And so everybody knows that I have about 95 percent level disagreement with Barack Obama on issues of principle and philosophy. But the fact is we have a job to do. And what people expect from people they elect is to do their job.”

Christie, a potential 2016 GOP contender, was snubbed by some in the conservative establishment after Sandy. For example, he wasn’t invited to speak at CPAC, a conference that typically features a who’s who in conservative politics. But the outspoken New Jerseyan waved off that cold reception, saying that Washington focuses too much on partisanship rather than on “getting the job done.”

Americans “hate Washington so much because people don’t care, many of them don’t care, about getting the job done … they care about … being right,” Christie charged. “The president is guilty of that, the Congress is guilty of that, what we did, the president and I did at that time was, we saw suffering together, and when you see that, you’re either going to step up and be responsible or you’re not. And we stepped up and were responsible together.”

You could hear conservative heads exploding after he said that.

But the reality is, giving Christie that much credit for Obama winning, frankly, gives too much credit to Christie. Even Mitt Romney, who by that logic should be the maddest at Christie, has kept up their friendship, having dinner and inviting him to speak at his upcoming conference.

And Christie's explanations play well in a general election campaign, once again branding the goernor as a pragmatic politician who gets things done, who puts people over party.

But that's not the kind of brand that would fly in a Republican primary. And that's Christie's challenge for 2016.

Take last month's Public Policy Polling survey, whcih found that more Obama voters like Christie than do Romney voters.

Of course, given that Obama won re-election, it's not necessarily a bad thing to have a large number of his voters say that they like you.

But when you're less popular among your own base than the other side, that could spell big trouble during any primary noinating battle.

TalkingPointsMemo.com notes some interesting statistics from that April poll:

The latest national survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling yielded an interesting nugget: the Republican governor is more popular among voters who backed Obama last year than he is with Romney voters.

A plurality of 42 percent of Obama supporters said they have a favorable opinion of Christie, while 24 percent said they have an unfavorable view. Romney voters, meanwhile, are pretty much split: 36 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Christie, compared with 31 percent who view him unfavorably.

Breaking down the numbers along partisan lines shows essentially the same results. Forty-two percent of Democrats nationwide have a favorable opinion of Christie while 22 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Among Republican voters, 39 percent have a favorable opinion and 30 percent have an unfavorable view.

The poll showed 39 percent of voters overall have a favorable view of Chrstie while 28 percent have an unfavorable view. Perhaps the most popular governor in the country, Christie boasts astronomical approval ratings in New Jersey, a result of his stewardship after Superstorm Sandy.

That Public Policy poll, by the way, also found that Hillary Clinton was the candidate to beat in 2016. It also found that Christie did the bet among Republicans pitted against her.

So, if Christie is seriously thinking about 2016, then you'll likely see hi make some moves bound to please Republicans after he wins re-election.

But remember this: After 8 years out in the White House wilderness, what Republicans want most of all is a winner. And if Christie wins big in true blue New Jersey, and if he continues to poll well nationally, then some of that conservative angst about Christie may disappear.

Conservatives may not like Christie. But they'll do anything to stop Hillary Clinton.

'JERSEY PROUD': CHRISTIE'S FIRST AD

Gov. Chris Christie unveiled the first ad of his re-election, touting his record on job creation, property taxes and bipartisanship, and touting what we have long thought was the key to Christie's appeal among New Jerseyans: That we're no longer the Jersey joke, now we're "Jersey proud."

But watching the ad, you can't help but see what a Christie presidential run would look like in 2016: A record of results, bipartisanship, and a determination to make us U.S. proud again.

This issue of pride isn't just a throw-away line. Before Christie, New Jersey was known best for "Jersey Shore," "Jerseylicious" and being the punch line of one too many late night jokes. We had a governor who was preferred vacationing at the Hamptons than at the Jersey Shore -- even though the taxpayers had funded him a lovely beach house right on the ocean. We had another governor who resigned after putting his boyfriend to be in charge of the state's security. Every other week we had politicians being arrested on corruption charges.

People want to believe in the place that they live, and not be embarrassed by it. They want to feel good about their state, and by extension, themselves. Whatever else you may think of Christie, he came into office proud to be from this state, and willing to fight for it, and for the taxpayers. When national pundits talked of Christiie, they talked approvingly of his "Jersey style." For a state and a people that for too long lived as a national punching bag, that counts. And it's just one of the reaons why Christie is doing so well in the polls, across all demographics, and it's a key reason why state Sen. Barbara Buono is behind.

You can watch the ad here.

That, by the way, is the last image on the screen of the ad. Change the wording from "the governor" to "president" and can't you envision a similar ad for 2016?

Here also, via Politico, is the campaign script:

Four years ago, New Jersey was broken: runaway spending, the nation’s highest taxes, and unemployment on the rise. Then we elected – Chris Christie. He made the tough decisions to get New Jersey back on track. Taxes cut. Spending cut. Government made smaller and smarter. A real property tax cap. Working with Democrats and Republicans, believing that as long as you stick to your principles, compromise isn’t a dirty word.

“The result: Four balanced budgets in a row, with no new taxes for anyone. The best job growth in 12 years. Nearly 130,000 new private sector jobs. Merit pay to reward New Jersey’s best teachers. And the most education funding, ever. But the most important thing he did has little to do with numbers, statistics or even politics: He made us proud to say we’re from New Jersey. Chris Christie. The Governor.”

The $1.2 million ad buy will run in the New York and Philadelphia TV markets.