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Three Ring Circus
PALLONE WANTS DEBATES
Apparently, Rep. Frank Pallone didn't get the memo that the U.S. Senate race would be won by Newark Mayor Cory Booker in a cakewalk. Pallone has challenged Booker to a series of multiple debates, a call then echoed by fellow Senate candidate Rep. Rush Holt. With Booker ahead in every poll, Pallone knows that the only way he can win is if he knocks Booken down a few pegs in the eyes of voters. So he's undoubtedly hoping these debates, and his advertising, will give him a chance to raise questions about Booker's record in Newark, and highlight his own accomplishments. It may be a long shot, but what with the governor's race all but turning into a coronation, the Democratic Senate battle may well turn into the only political race in town.
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Three Ring Circus Archive
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Daily Muse: THE CHRISTIE CONUNDRUM
As he racked up the endorsement of yet another Democrat -- this time Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider -- Gov. Chris Christie keeps enjoying boffo re-elect numbers.
You've got to give Christie this: He knows which audience he's playing to.
Take his decision to visit with Bill Clinton at his Global Initiative conference to talk leadership, rather than go talk to a conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition's conference on the same day.
If you're talking New Jersey politics, the Clinton call is a no brainer. National politics is another matter.
But as Mary Pat Christie told Matt Lauer on the "Today" show a few weeks back, first things first. He's got to get re-elected in New Jersey first.
On that front, things couldn't look much better. A new Stockton poll has him up by 40 points. Most other points put the lead at 30. Either way, it's really large.
So there was Chrstie, on stage with Bill Clinton, talking leadership and how to respond to national disasters. A bipartisan chatfest like this can only help Christie back home. And what must it do to Barbara Buono? If you were her, you'd have to start wondering, do national Democrats even know that there's a gubernatorial contest in New Jersey? Do they even care?
For if they do, what in the world are they doing lauding Christie as they do, and pumping up his numbers, all the while their candidate is dropping further in the polls, and further behind in the money race.
Of course, some conservatives might argue that Christie is the Democrat's candidate, pointing to the new Gallup poll that says Christie is the favorite Republican among all Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents. Critics would undoubtedly note that his rating among Ds and leaners was a ctually a point better than his rating among Republicans.
But what we think is most interesting about that Gallup poll isn't just the Democrat number; it's that the poll also found that Christie was the most popular Republican officeholders among all voters -- and by a wide margin. Christie got a 52 percent approval rating; Rep. Paul Ryan was second with 40 percent; Fla. Sen. Marco Rubio third with 37 percent.
Which of course brings us back to the Christie conundrum for conservatives. Christie's main appeal in 2016 is that he can win; theat he can bring both Democrats and independents into the Republican fold. No other Republican office holder can say that today; none has the proven to havethe cross-over appeal. It's what Chrstie's main "Elect me" argument will be in 2016, that he's a Republican that can win. Will conservatives bypass him in order to find a more ideologically pure candidate, one about whom they don't have suspicions?
It becomes a lot harder to bypass Christie in 2016 if he wins New Jersey by more than 20 points. Almost impossible if he wins by 30 points.
Christie knows that. He is an astute poltical strategist, and he's handicapped his chances, what will work, and what won't. And he's determined his only path to secure the nomination is to roll up a huge victory in his re-election campaign. That's why he's playing the home state card for now. Host President Barack Obama on the shore, visit with Bill Clinton, bypass the conservative conference.
But here's what we expect in 2014. Having won re-election, Christie will then focus his attention on the nation's biggest prize. He'll have private sitdowns with Republican bigwigs, meet with conserviative opinion makers, and start showing up on those conservative radio talk shows.
Oh, and if the Faith and Freedom Coalition asks him to speak next year? He'll be there. With bells on.
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Daily Muse: PARTY 'IN SHAMBLES,' DEMS PICK NEW CHAIR
Is the Democratic Party in shambles?
Sen. Ray Lesniak says it is. Now, to put it in context, Lesniak made his comments as part of his campaign to gain control of the Democratic Party in a chairmanship fight with state Sen. Barbara Buono and her nominee, Assemblyman Jason O'Donnell.
That fight ended abruptly when Buono and state Senate President Steve Sweeney announced that Passaic County Deocratic Chairman John Currie was the new consensus choice for chairman, and that Lesniak and O'Donnell would step aside, avoiding a messy and unnescessary chairman battle.
But in many ways, the damage had already been done. In an interview with NJTV, Lesniak said that state Democratic Commitee is in shambles .. The party is falling apart."
Strong words. But Lesniak didn't stop there, warning that the party was in danger of losing both house of the Legislature in this November's election.
“Unless we have strong leadership, including a strong state
Democratic chair who can close the gap or help win the election for
Barbara Buono, that there’s a real likelihood that we will lose both
houses, and that’s one of the responsibilities of a state Democratic
chair,” Lesniak said.
Now, granted, some of that was likely hyperbole, spurred by Lesniak's desire to be state chairman. But Lesniak's warning verbalizes just how bad some Democrats fear November's election is going to go for Buono, currently down 30 points in the polls.
Most political observers think that if Christie wins by a large margin -- and 30 points is certainly a large margin -- the state Senate could switch to Republican control. There aren't many who are suggesting that the Assembly could also be in play.
But Lesniak noted the large fundraising advantage that Gov. Chris Christie has, the number of state Democrats who have defected to the Republican's side, and the polls, as reasons Democrats have to be concerned.
Will that play out? It's still early although the window for Buono to turn things around is closing fast. She helped herself Wednesday though, when she ended the unnecessary chairmanship battle with Sweeney, Lesniak, and other state party leaders.
For what Lesniak didn't say, but what is demonstrably true, is that if the Democratic party leaders don't get out the vote in their counties, then the blood bath that Lesniak feared could easily come true. By stepping aside from that fight, Buono avoided what could ahe been a long, messy slide toward a landslide defeat.
But that doesn't mean that Currie -- or any Democratic chair -- could turn things around for Buono. She's got to tu that around herself. A misstep or two by Christie would help her cause as well.
In making his dire predictions, Lesniak also took a swipe or two at the current chairman, Assemblyman John Wisniewski.
The Ledger has more:
“Chairman Wisniewski, if I read it correctly, you’re saying he’s leaving the party in shambles,” (NJTV's MIke) Schneider asked Lesniak. “Unfortunately, that happens to be the case,” Lesniak responded. “It needs an uplift, someone who can get it done.”
Lesniak said today that he called Wisniewski and apologized for his comments, calling them “not the best choice of words.”
“The party is in shambles, but it’s not his fault,” Lesniak said.
Wisniewski has been at the helm of a party turned upside down by Gov.
Chris Christie, who has collecting Democratic endorsements like
trophies in recent weeks.
Still, Wisniewski said he was proud of his tenure, pointing to
winning the state redistricting battles, three election cycles and
turning the party’s finances around.
“By any objective measure, my time as state chairman has been a successful one,” he said.
Whatever one may think of Wisniewski's tenure, you have to give him this: He did preside over the state's redistricting battles, winning both, thereby all but assuring Democratic control of the Legislature for a decade (barring, of course, a blowout.)
In fact, here's something for Democrats to ponder: How much worse would things be for Democrats right now had the GOP won those battles instead.
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Daily Muse: A BAD WEEK FOR BUONO
Could the news get any worse for state Sen. Barbara Buono?
Not only does the latest Quinnipiac Poll have her 30 points down, still, against Gov. Chris Christie, but her negatives are rising, thanks no doubt to Christie's ad campaign. She's got an upside down 18-23 unfavorability score; in August, she had a 12 percent favorable and a 9 percent unfavorable. In April, 78 percent said they didn't know enough about her to form an opinion; in June, that number dropped to 56 percent.
And now, Buono's sputtering campaign has to compete for dollars and publicity in the campaign for the U.S. Senate. Today, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Reps. Rush Holt and Frank Pallone, as well as Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver all filed petitions to run for the primary. On the Republican side, only two candidates, conservative activst Steve Lonegan and newcomer Dr. Alieta Eck, who was endorsed by the Bayshore Tea Party Gropu, filed to run.
But that means that for Democrats, the attention is now focused on the Senate race, which will command the money, the attention, and the publicity, and make it that much harder for Buono to get her message out.
Compounding that came word that two major Democratic players -- state Sen. and Union City Mayor Brian Stack, and Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, had decided to endorse Christie. The endorsements werent a surprise, but the fact that the pair were abandoning Buono so early and so publicly spoke volumes.
So did the fact that Camden County powerroker George Norcross announced Sunday that he was endorsing Newark Mayor Cory Booker, but was silent on Buono. Unless you read his decision to journey to Trenton and stand next to Christie today -- for the first time in a decade -- to annouce a new partnership for Cooper Hospital a tacit endorsement.
Timing is everything in politics, and Norcross is a smart guy. The timing of today's announcement, and journey, did not escape him.
Now all that would be bad enough for Buono. But when you add that to the fact that on Thursday she may well suffer an embarassing defeat of her own making, and well, the bad news keeps getting worse. On Thursday, Democrats from around the state will pick the next party chairman: Buono's choice, who is Assemblyman Jason O'Donnell, or state Sen. Ray Lesniak. Lesniak has most of the top tier Democrats in his corner. The list, according to PolitickerNJ.com, includes Norcross, Senate President Steve Sweeney, Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, Assembly Majority Leader Lou Greenwald, and Senate President Pro Tempor Nia Gill.
Now, normally, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee gets to choose the party chairman. But such is the disdain that Democrats feel about the Buono campaign that they are willing to embarass her publicly and choose someone else as chairman. Make no mistake about it: If these Democrats thought Buono had any shot at winning, they would never do this.
But they don't, so they are. And Buono will be left trying to explain how she can lead the state, when she can't even lead her own party.
Not a good week.
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Daily Muse: IS ANYONE ELSE GETTING IN?
So is any Republican going to run for the U.S. Senate seat other than Steve Lonegan?
As of now, it doesn't appear likely. State Sens. Joe Kyrillos and Tom Kean Jr. have all said no, as has Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno.
Now of course, we don't know why. But you have to figure that Gov. Chris Christie had a sense of what each of these folks were thinking about when he named Attorney General Jeff Chiesa to the post. Given how politically tuned Christie usually is, we just don't believe he would have cheated one of his friends out of the chance to run as an incumbent if they had indicated that they wanted to run.
And so, if thats the case, does that explain why Gov. Chris Christie did what he did, because he knew no big name Republican wanted to toss his -- or her -- hat into the ring?
Intriguing possibility.
Almost as inriguing as the Democratic contest for senator that's lining up. Rep. Rush Holt is in, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker is supposed to get in tomorrow, whiel Rep. Frank Pallone is also said be eyeing a run.
But here, of course, is the irony of all this.
For a Democrat other than Booker to win, they've got to do a good job of taking Booker down a peg or two, which could mean a nasty primary fight. Lonegan, on the other hand, looks like he'll be unopposed and can cruise to victory.
Lonegan also has a built in grassroots network of enthusiastic supporters who are certain to get to the polls for the special election. One can assume the Democratic party bosses will get their base out too.
But what happens if Booker loses the primary, and there's not the same enthusiasm for the Democrat s there othewise would have been. Or if Booker's appeal wanes as a result of the primary fight.
Under that scenario, Lonegan might win the race in a surprise. And if he does, Christie will look like a genius. And what would his detractors in the Republican and conservative ranks say then?
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Daily Muse: SENATOR CHIESA?
Of all the names of all the possible candidates that Gov. Chris Christie could have chosen to replace Frank Lautenberg, no one expected Christie to have named Attorney General Jeff Chiesa.
And no one expected him to pick someone who would serve only as a caretaker position, and not seek the office himself.
Chiesa, who declares himself to be a conservative Republican, will start his new job on Monday.
But now the question arises: What has this pick and Christie's process done to the Christie mystique?
With his decision to hold a special election 20 days before his own, at a cost of $11.9 million, Christie has punctured a hole in the Christie mystique. The meme about Christie has always been that he was a fiscal conservative truth teller.
But now, folks like radio talker Sean Hannity, who had been a fan of Christie's, said today that "Chris Christie is all about Chris Christie." If that starts to take hold in the media and among the pundityr, Christie's national ambitions are in trouble.
His explanation today that he knew the Democrats would sue if he made the election in 2014 explains part of his decision. His explanation that New Jersey's founding fathers wanted to separate federal and state elections seems an explanation too far.
But what we've learned in all this is that Christie has created a conundrum of his own choosing. By choosing a caretaker, he no doubt continues to irritate the Republicans, because he is not giving a Republican a chance to get settled in and run from the position of incumbency.
You have to figure that if Christie's good buddy Joe Kyrillos wanted to run for the Senate seat, that Christie would ahve given it to him. The fact that he didn't, and that Kyrillos hasn't announced, increases the speculation that Kyrillos isn't gong to run.
Is Steve Lonegan the only Republican who is gong to declare? Is Corry Booker ever going to get in the race?
Here's the thing: the nation has learned alot about Chris Christie these last three years, mostly from an adoring press. Now we're going to learn how he handles adversity, with former supporters questioning his motives.
Christie is scheduled to be at Mitt Romney's political retreat this weekend, where he may get a firsthand sense of how angry establishment Republicans are with him, and just how much fence-mendng he has to do.
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Daily Muse: CHRISTIE'S OCtOBER SURPRISE
Tuesday was primary day in New Jersey, but that was hardly the big political news of the day. Yes, Barbara Buono and Gov. Chris Christie are the official gubernatorial nominees of their party. The Tea Party challenge in Monmouth County fell short.
But for politicos, the big news was Christie's decision that he would hold a special election for the U.S. Senate seat 20 days before his own, at a cost to taxpayers of $11.9 million, is the news that really reverberated not just in New Jersey, but nationally as well.
CNN covered some of Christie's press conference live, and then spent much of the afternoon talking about it. The post-announcement punditry seems united that Christie's move was a cynical one to avoid having a popular Democrat on the ballot with hi, thereby cutting in to his expected landslide victory over Buono. Washington Republicans were said to be fuming; some, such as the conservative PowerLine blog, declared the move killed Christie's chances permanently for 2016. Others, such as RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende, argue instaed that the decision shows that Christie may be a genius.
So which is it?
Let's start with the New Jersey Constitution is unclear about when a special election needed to be held for Frank Lautenberg's seat. If he had died a month ago, there was no doubt it should be held this year. If it was next month, it would have been clear that the race needed to be run in 2014.
Democrats were pushing for the race to be held in 2013, while Republicans wanted to wait until 2014, to give a Republican the chance to gain some recognition and a shot at defeating the expected Cory Booker in the November 2014 election.
Democrats had made it clear that they would sue if Christie waited until 2014, and as RealClearPolitics noted, the likelihood is that the state Supreme Court would be more likely to side with the Dems than Christie. (Who can forget the old switcharoo, when the court allowed the Dems to replace Torricelli on the ballot with Lautenberg, even though the Constitution seemed fairly clear that couldn't be done.)
So knowing that, if you're Christie, do you an the Senate contest to be run in November or October?
Well, if you're Christie with an eye for 2016, October is the only choice. Christie's main rationale for running -- and winning -- in the Republican primaries is that he can win a national election. And to make that case, he has to not just win against Buono, but win big -- by 20 or 30 points big> He can't do that if there's a Senate contest -- particularly one with Cory Booker as the Democratic nominee -- on the ballot with him.
Christie got some more credence for his "I'm the only Republican who can win" mem Tuesday. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal showed that Christie's support cuts across party lines: 40 percent of Republicans, 41 percent
of independents and 43 percent of Democrats seeing him in a positive
light. As noted by NBC: "Chris Christie is carving out a unique position in the polarized
landscape of American politics. The Republican New Jersey governor now
enjoys nearly equal appeal among Democrats, Republicans and independents
according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll."
But that poll also shows the danger for Christie: He has a higher favorable rating among Democrats and independents than he does among Republicans. Republicans who haven't been able to forgive Christie for his bear hug of Obama right before the November election are already muttering that Christie's decision is not just too cute by half, self-serving, and all about him -- and the Republican Party be damned.
That's why we fully expect that once Christie gets re-elected in November, he will begin to court those disaffected Republicans and conservatives. Despite what PowerLine and others may think, in our view, Christie's decision is further proof that the governor is indeed planning for 2016.
Despite the governor's declaration that his decision had nothing to do with politics: "There's no political purpose. The political purpose is to give the
people a voice," Christie said. "The issues facing the United States
Senate are too important not to have an elected representative making
those decisions" -- it has everything to do with politics. Christie loses his electability argument if he doesn't win by a big margin. He also loses the headline if a Senate contest is also on the ballot.
The belief among Christieites, and likely by Christie himself, is that what Republicans are going to looking fo in 2016 is not someone ideologically pure, but someone who can win. That after 8 years in the White House wilderness, a fiscal conservative candidate who is charasmatic, able to frame a debate and win over Democrats and independents is exactly what the Republican Party will need in 2016.
That argument fades if Christie only wins by 10 points.
There's also the issue of the state Legislature. As Nate Silver notes in his 538 blog today, if Christie does indeed win big, there is the chance he may bring some Republicans into the state Legislature with him. Democrats are already worried that Christie's coattails could cost them the state Senate -- that won't happen if Christie's margin of victory is clipped. And let's face t, if Christie has a Reublican majority in at least one house of the Legislature, that helps not only his agenda in New Jersey, but could help boost his national amtitions as well.
And despite the kerfuffle over the October election, it's frankly hard to see how this will last much past the election itself. Christie will appoint a Republican to the seat for the next five months, in time for next week's debate on immigration reform.
And if Booker is the Democratic nominee -- assuming he wins a likely primary against Reps. Frank Pallone, Rush Holt or Rob Andrews -- and if Booker wins the Senate race by a largeargin, then it's hard to see how Republicans will continue to criticize Christie for., as Silver wrote, simply recognizing and accepting the inevitable:
While some national Republicans are annoyed with Mr. Christie’s decision,
they may not be privy to all the information he had about which
Republican candidates might have been interested in Mr. Lautenberg’s
seat. It’s plausible that Mr. Christie could have helped a reasonably
good G.O.P. nominee to a narrow victory. But if none were interested in
the race, it may have been a lost cause.
It may be reasonable to infer, then, that Mr. Christie evaluated the
Republican field and did not like what he saw — and that Mr. Booker is
poised to win the Senate seat with relative ease. Either way, what seems clear is that this is likely the first of many decisions Christie will make over the upcoming years (assuming, of course, that he wins re-election) that are going to be viewed through the prism of what they mean for him in New Jersey, as well as nationally. The gubernatorial contest may be realitvely sleepy, but New Jersey politics is never dull.
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CHRISTIE'S CONSERVATIVE TROUBLES CONTINUE
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Daily Muse: LAUTENBERG DIES AT 88
Sen. Frank Lautenberg, a multimillionaire businessman and the last member of the Senate to have served in World War II, died today of viral pneumonia. Lautenberg had been ill for several months, and had missed a number of votes in the Senate. Still, he had returned to the chamber recently to cast votes on anti-gun legislation, which had been one of his pet causes, along with anti-smoking legislation. Lautenberg sponsored the bill that banned smoking in airplanes. He also championed legislation that raisedthe legal drinking age from 18 to 21, and barred domestic abusers from acquiring firearms. "On a day-to-day basis, more people were probably touched by what he did than some better-known senators," said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University. "He was not interested in fashioning grand legislative dreams. He was concerned with what was achievable."
Our condolences to his friends, family and supporters.
But with his death, speculation now turns to who will replace him. Gov. Chris Christie, under New Jersey law, can appoint Lautenberg's replacement.
Some are speculating that Christie may just accept what many see as the political the inevitability, and appoint Newark Mayor Cory Booker ot the seat, to show case to national voters that his bipartisan cred. But that would infuriate Republicans and concervatives, with whom Christie is on shaky ice for 2016 anyway. They would view it as a betrayal, and Christie is frankly not that dumb. If he has any aspirations for 2016, the last person he would appoint is Booker -- who incidentally is also working hard to elect Christie's gubernatorial opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono.
Most speculation assumes that Christie will appoint either state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, R-Monmouth, his good friend and the GOP candidate against Sen. Bob Menendez last time out, and Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, who ran against Menendez in 2006.
If we were to bet today, we would bet on Kyrillos.
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Daily Muse: sUMMER BROMANCE
He won him a teddy bear. They exchanged high fives and bear hugs. And thus, the bromance between Gov. Chris Christie and President Barack Obama was on full display.
If anything, the bromance became as big a story as the story itself.
Here's Mad Magazine's take, via the Daily Caller:
And, in case you were wondering, Christie's visit with Obama did indeed infuriate conservatives. After all, if a bear hug
drove them crazy last time, Christie's winning a teddy bear for Obamasent them over the edge..
Here's what Rush Limbaugh had to say (you can listen to him here via RealClearPolitics.com:
Hurricane Sandy there are still a lot of people that haven’t been
helped. That’s not the point. Oh, no, no! Seven months after the
hurricane came and went, there are still a lot of people who haven’t
been helped.
But the point is that Obama and Christie want to help. They really want
to help! They really want this to be fixed and solved. So it is a case
of the good intentions overwhelming any of the results. The good
intentions matter far more than the results. Now, this bipartisanship
that the media is salivating over? There isn’t any bipartisanship here.
Obama has money. Governor Christie wants the money, Governor Christie
needs the money, so the people will be helped. So Christie praises
Obama.
It’s a master-servant relationship. That’s exactly the kind of
bipartisanship that the Drive-By Media wants. Master-servant. That’s
“bipartisan” That’s what’s going on here. (interruption) Master-SERVANT.
Master-STAFF. Don’t take it any further than that, Snerdley. I’m not
going on going there. I’m just telling you. Obama’s got the money;
Christie needs the money. “Obama wants to walk the beach; that’s what
we’re gonna do. Obama wants a photo-op; it’s what we’re gonna do.”
 And here's what National Review had to say about When Barry met Christie:
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University
of Virginia, says that Republicans remain frustrated with Christie. “We
get a slew of e-mail and tweets from Republicans, basically saying,
‘forget hell,’” about Christie, he says. “They’re not going to forget
nor forgive what Christie did at the end of the 2012 campaign. They’re
just not.” And in Iowa, Republicans are also frustrated with
Christie’s decision to team up with Obama. “I think it is something
they’re going to remember,” Craig Robinson, former political director of
the state GOP and editor of The Iowa Republican, says. At
a recent event featuring Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, also a
potential 2016 contender, Robinson says he heard two Iowa Republicans
dismiss Christie as “just too liberal.” New Hampshire GOP
strategist Mike Dennehy agrees that Christie is risking alienating
GOP-primary voters. “I think everyone understands in a crisis elected
leaders getting together to view devastation,” Dennehy remarks. But, he
says, Christie “just
has to be careful about being seen as too cozy with a president who has
been sticking his thumb in the eye of Republicans all across the
country.” Toward near the end of 2016, he says, “Obama will be most
disliked Democrat president Republicans have ever seen.” And the
Republicans Christie is alienating are some of the most involved in the
volunteering, fundraising, and organizing that is so crucial to win
primaries in the early states. Christie has been dismissive
about these concerns, telling NBC last week that, “The fact of the
matter is, he’s the president of the United States and he wants to come
here and see the people of New Jersey. I’m the governor and I’ll be here
to welcome him.” While Christie is currently leading
his Democratic gubernatorial opponent, Barbara Buono, by over 30 points
in the polls, he is running in a very blue state, notes Sabato. “He has
to be careful,” he says. “It’s not as though it’s impossible for him to
lose.” “I think he’s wise to continue to reach out to Democrats
and independents in New Jersey,” Sabato continues. “He needs them to get
a second term.” And as far as 2016 goes, “he has no chance of going
further without a second term,” the Virgina guru says. But whether
Christie can win back some conservatives he’s losing now by
implementing conservative policies in his second term remains unknown. Robinson,
who’s seen firsthand plenty of GOP would-be presidential nominees face
Iowa voters, is unsure. “The jury’s out on that,” he says.
What we take away from all this is that Christie is going to do what he has to do, including winning teddy bears for Obama, to win re-election. After all, if he doesn't he doesn't have a political future. And the larger percentage he wins the state by, the better his chances look. But the day after his re-electio, expect Christie to turn into a happy partisan warrior. And insted of winning Obama a teddy bear, he may well be sending him some barbed arrows. But this risk Christie takes is this: Like any jilted lover, wIll any one on the right still be willing to listen to him after the bromance fades?
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Daily Muse: HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO HER
That hissing sound you heard about 1:30 this afternoon wasn't the sound of conservatives booing Gov. Chris Christie, although they are probably did so.
No, that hissing sound was actually the sound of a fork being stuck in the Buono campaign for governor.
She's done.
When you have the president of the United States come to your state, and then praise your opponent -- w hile not offering you any campaign time of your own -- how many more hints do you need?
It was so bad that while Obama was talking about Christie from the podium in Asbury Park, state Sen. Barbara Buono was up in the rafters, not only not acknowledged, but barely afforded any recognition at all.
Think of it as the political version of "He's just not that into you."
If the president of the United States comes in to your state, while you're campaigning against the Republican incumbent, and he spends more time with your opponent than you, then you don't need to watch a DVD of the movie, or an episode of "Sex and the City," to know the truth.
The Obama team has already written the Buono campaign off. And believe us, all those other donors who might have been thinking about whether it's time to endorse Buono have just decided to close their checkbook.
Obama's snub of Buono couldn't be more evident.
It started on the plane ride to New Jersey, when press secretary Jay Ccarney had this to say about Chrsitie (via Capitold Quickies):
President Barack Obama thinks Gov. Chris Christie has done an excellent job
helping New Jersey recover from superstorm Sandy, the president’s chief
spokesman said this morning.
Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters on the president’s flight from
Washington to New Jersey that the best way for the region to rebuild following a
massive October storm that devastated the state’s coastline would be for all
levels of government to cooperate, according to White House press pool
reports.
Obama’s trip to New Jersey, said Carney, was designed to focus attention on
his commitment to the area’s recovery.
The president has respect for Christie and his efforts to rebuild the state,
Carney said.
Excellent job? Respect for Christie? How's Buono supposed to combat that?
The harsh truth is, she can't. She doesn't have the money. And as each day passes, she looks more and more like the sacrificial lamb that Democrats put up to run against Christie.
But why would Obama tell New Jersey once again how "excellent" he thinks Christie is?
Of course, cynics among us wonder whether Obama, through his praise of Christie, is looking to turn the Republican governor into such a pariah among conservatives that Christie will never get out of a Republican primary. And that means Christie, who is viewed by some as one of the stronger potential GOP candidates for 2016, would never make it out of the primary.
But that would be, as they say, Chicago style politics.
And why would the president engage in that?
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Daily Muse: WILL THEY HUG AGAIN?
President Barack Obama is set to tour the Jersey Shore on Tuesday with Gov. Chris Christie to see recovery efforts first hand.
But for politicos, all eyes will be on whether CHristie will give Obama another bear hug, and just how effusively -- if at all -- he praises Obama.
Christie's bear hug of the president and his praise for his handling of Sandy infuriated Republicand conservatives, who blame Christie for helping to defeat Republican Mitt Romney with his abundant praise of Obama.
Which, frankly, has always struck us as assuming way tooo much power in a Christie hug. We've just never beleived that people who were going to vote for Romney changed their mind just because Christie said the president was helpful during Sandy.
But you know what they say. Haters gotta hate, so ....
Anyway, it has seemed to us lately that Christie was trying to get himself back in the good graces of conservatives. He's been critical of Obama's handling of the IRS scandals, as well as Benghazi and the spying on the press. He's attacked the president for his lack of leadership.
And of course, he also started to cozy up to conservatives, most recently by refusing to link superstorm Sandy to climate change.
So our guess is that Christie will be respectful of the president, but not as effusive. The governor, we believe, is already running for 2016. He won't make the same mistake twice.
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Daily Muse: WHAT WAS HE THINKING?
Of all the things that Sen. Robert Menendez could have said, why in the world would ha say this about the Belmar boardwalk reopening.
From the Daily Record:
The boardwalk's reconstruction began on Jan. 9. It required more than a half million screws, Mayor Matt Doherty said.
“I never thought I'd be so happy about a half million screws,” said Menendez, who noted Belmar plays a special role in the lives of the state's residents. “We have preserved that New Jersey birthright.”
Insert your own joke here.
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Daily Muse: WARMING UP TO 2016?
File this under the maybe he is thinking about 2016 and those conservatives after all file.
Gov. Chris Christie dismissed the likelihood of climate change on Monday when he was asked by a WNYC radio reporter whether Sandy could be linked to climate change.
Here's how Christie responded:
“I don’t think there’s been any proof thus far that Sandy was caused by
climate change," Christie said Monday at a ceremony honoring the
rebuilding of the boardwalk in Lavallette, N.J. "But I would absolutely
expect that that’s exactly what WNYC would say, because you know liberal
public radio always has an agenda.”
Those remarks were met with appreciative laughter from the crowd in Lavallette.
Now, why is this important, you ask. Well, one of the strikes that conservatives have against Christie is that he previously appeared to accept it as real -- when most conservatives and Republicans are highly skeptical that climate change is actually occurring.
Here's what Christie said about climate change when asked about a few years ago:
In 2011, the Republican governor called climate change “real,” going on to say that “human activity plays a role in these changes.”
"I can’t claim to fully understand all of this," he said in July 2011.
"Certainly not after just a few months of study. But when you have over
90% of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate
change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role it’s time
to defer to the experts."
That comment caused conservative heads to implode. Now, it's true, that Christie didn't walk back his prior support for the possibility that climate change change exists, but he did express some skepticism about it.
Poll after poll has shown Christie would be a leading contender for the presidency in 2016, if he can get past of a primary. And the only way he can get past a primary is if he has conservative support -- which he currrently does not.
THese commenta slone won't solve Christie's problem with conservatives.
But it's a start.
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Daily Muse: IS IT PRONOUNCED BUONO? OR LOSER?
Just how much trouble in the Buono campaign in?
When you're six months into a campaign, and you're putting out an ad telling people how to pronounce your name, it's safe to assume that your candidacy is in serious trouble.
Here's how the Associated Press describes the ad:
So Sen. Barbara Buono (BWOH’-noh), the candidate with the often-mispronounced name, has a new web ad telling voters who she is ... and is not.
In the ad starting Monday previewed by The Associated Press, Buono tells voters it’s not Boh-NOH’, as in Cher’s onetime soul mate, Sonny.
Nor is it Bono (BON’-oh), the lead signer from the rock band U2.
But it does rhyme with Cuomo, the Democrat governor of New York.
Christie has released two television commercials, one positive and one negative, while a Democratic Super PAC has been running anti-Christie ads.
Oh dear.
Maybe this ad would have made sense back in January, or December. Maybe it would have been a fun way to get people to know who Buono is.
But in May? Six months before the election, andl lless than a month before the primary? If voters still don't know who she is, she's got alot more problems that just the fact that people don't how to pronounce her name.
And we're not the only ones who think so.
For when a popular former governor of your same party then suggests that you may want to consider dropping out of the reace, then it's doubly safe to assume that your candidacy is floundering.
From the Ledger's conversation with former Govs. Brtendyn Byrne and Tom Kean:
Q: Sen. Barbara Buono is having trouble raising enough money to qualify for matching funds. Could this bode ill for other Democrats, as well? GOV. BYRNE: Buono is way behind. I was way behind in 1977 and I was thinking, if it gets worse, I’m going to withdraw. It didn’t get worse. As a matter fact, it got better. But at one point I thought of dropping out in favor of a better-positioned candidate. I don’t know whether that consideration would appeal to Buono, but I would advise she make that evaluation.
GOV. KEAN: You were a good candidate. She’s not. The able candidates in the Democratic party all decided not to run this year, so they were left without a strong candidate. She stepped forward and now the party is living with the consequences of that. And they may be felt up and down the ticket.
But let's be serious. Even if Buono did drop out of the race, who would the Democrats put up in her place? No prominent Democrat was willing to stop forward before Buono, and given the polls -- and the scramble to replace Gov. Chris Christie -- we doubt there are many who want the job now.
But when you add all this up, inlcluding the fact that Christie is now starring in a multimillion dollar tourism ad buy, the real problem for Buono is that she better hope that people don't start thinking of pronouncing her name as L-O-S-E-R.
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Daily Muse: CHRISTIE'S ACHILLES HEEL?
Could property taxes give state Sen. Barbara Buono an opening in her uphill battle against Gov. Chris Christie?
If there's anything New Jerseyans hate more than property taxes, we don't know what it is.
But the news out of Christie's own Community Afairs Department show that under Christie, homeowners have paid 19 percent more in taxes since he took office, as compared to 11 percent under then-Gov. Jon S. Corzine.
Of course, the big reason for the difference is that Corzine had given out more in property tax rebates than Christie did.
But in an election year, when Buono is looking for something to shake some support away from the governor, the issue of property taxes could give her an opening.
But all that depends on how nimble Buono's campaign team is, an0 how deft they are at turning this against Christie.
So far, not so much.
But you can tell how nervous the governor is about the property tax record by how hard he took off after NJSotlight.com reporter Mark Magyar, who had written a story saying that New Jerseyans were paying more for property taxes under Christie than Corzine:
An analysis by NJ Spotlight found that net property taxes in New
Jersey rose 18.6 percent in Christie's first three years in office,
compared to 6 percent in Democrat Corzine's last three years in office.
The Republican governor lashed out at the author of the story, Mark
Magyar, who was Republican Gov. Christie Whitman's deputy policy chief
and policy director for independent candidate Chris Daggett's failed
gubernatorial bid in 2009. That's the year Christie unseated Corzine.
"A totally ridiculous report from Chris Daggett's operative,"
Christie said during a campaign event today. "Apparently the Daggett
people are still fighting the race that they didn't win last time." Of course, what was remarkable about that was that on Tuesday, Christie's own Department of Community Affairs released its own report that said property taxes had risen 19 percent under Christie and 11 percent under Corzine. From the Asbury Park Press: A sharp hike in net property taxes at the start of Gov. Chris
Christie’s term has been softened, but New Jersey homeowners on average
pay nearly $1,200 more than when Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine left
office. Christie, who is up for
re-election in November, currently stars in a new television campaign ad
that includes the headline “Christie’s plan offers hope on property
taxes.” His plan
has included overhauls of pensions and health benefits for public
employees and a cap on local government taxes, but average net property
taxes have risen 19 percent under Christie during his first three years
in office. Corzine’s first three years showed an 11 percent increase,
according to new data from the state Department of Community Affairs. The
data do not include the expected impact on property taxes to offset
millions of dollars in lost tax revenue in beachfront towns hit by
superstorm Sandy. The reality is, Christie hjas an argumet to make. Ever since the pension and health benefits repform, combined with the 2 percent cap, have resulted in a dramatic slowing of property taxes. And instead of lashing out at the reporter, the smart play for Christie would have been to remind the public that he wants to enact a $1,000 property tax credit, but that he has been blocked by Democrats in the Legislature.
Going after Magyar only showe that Christie is feeling vulnerable. Of course, the state of play in the campaign being hwhat it is, Buono doesn't have the fmoney to launch a statewide advertisign campaign to convnince people that Christie is responsible for hikes in proepty taxes. She did launch an Internet ad, but let's be serious, how many people besides hard core partisans are going to watch that?
The assumption has long been that if Christie loses this election, or his big lead, it will be because he did something to lose it, not because of Buono.
Lets see how quickly Christie pivots to campaigning for his property tax credit as a way to inoculate himself and his campaign against the property tax charge. For the truth is, the pension and health beneifts reform, and the 2 percent cap, will do more to keep taxes low than just throwing money at the problem.
But throwing a tax cut at the problem, combined with pushing for an end to abuses like sick and vacation leave payouts, is good campaign politics.
Attacking a reporter for reporting what your own government was going to concede a few days later is not.
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Daily Muse: BIG BROTHER REALLY IS WATCHING
No matter what elese you think of him, George Bush never did this:
Under his administration, the IRS never targeted liberal or progressive groups for extra scrutiny.
And the Justice Department never got the phone records of Assoociated Press reportersas part of a government probe.
But Barrack Obama did.
The irony here, of course, is that Obama keeps referring aback to the Bush administration to contrast his administration against.
But he really should have been referencing the Nixon administration, because that’s who he’s acting most like.
The idea of any government administration targeting opposition groups, or reporters, because they don’t like their agenda, or what they report, is chilling,.
Do we have a Bill of Rights under the Obama administration?
Or does the administration think it's really a Bill of Maybes?
As in maybe the president will let our phone conversations stay private today. Or maybe the president won’t target groups that don’t like him today.
The president and his minions hav4 way too much power to be engaging in this game of First Amendment hide and seek. As in now you see it, now you don’t.
It is positively chilling that the government can unleash its power after people it deems to be enemies. It means that none of us are safe.
Sure, Obama condemned the IRS today and promised swift retribution.
But who gave these low level employees the idea to go after Tea Party and concservative groups in the first place?
Are we to believe that they just got this idea all on their own?
Likewise, are we to believe that the Justice Depaartment on its own decided to check the incomeing and outgoing phone calls of AP reporters and editors? That Eric Holder pnever picked up the phone and cleared it with his boss?
Sorry, that’s a bridge too far.
If Obama really has nothing to hide, if he really was unaware of what was taking place, then h e needs to start cleaning house. And taking names.
The truth is, the president has had an easy ride from the media. The Benghazi scandal would have blown up long before now if he wasn’t.
The ultimate irony, of course, is that by targeting the press, Obama has targeted his own palace guard.
Reporters were outraged last week over Benghazi, and then again over the idea that the IRS was targeting groups because of their political beliefs..
If you thought Jay Carney had a rough press conference on Friday, just wait until Tuesday’s.
No one likes to think they've been played. And on Tuesday, Carney is going to be facing a roomful of them.
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Daily Muse: WINNERS AND LOSERS
Did you catch the wall-to-wall coverage of Gov. Chris Christie’s lap band surgery?
If you did, that should tell you all you need to know about why state Sen. Barbara Buono is having so much trouble raising cash for her fledgling gubernatorial campaign.
Every cable network featured Christie all day long. They even carried his press conference live.
It was almost as if President Barack Obama had announced that he was undergoing Lab-Band surgery. Only in his case, it would be Lab-Expand surgery.
But that’s the point. They covered it like it was the president because all those networks believe Christie may well one day be president.
And they all saw his weight as an impediment to him ever getting there. So now that he’s taken care of that, they see Christie’s rise as inevitable.
Which means they’ve already assumed he wins re-election in November. And news flash: Democrats have made that assumption too.
There is a reason why One New Jerey is able to raise more money than Buono’s re-election campaign.
It’s because Christie keeps a naughty and nice list. And if Christie is going to win re-election, they know his power is going to extend beyond New Jersey. And one day, may even reach into Washington.
So if Chrsitie is going to win, as now seems likely, the thinking goes, why give money to Buono?
Of course, all this puts Buono in a no-win position. She can’t win without money, but if the conventional wisdom has it that she can’t win, she won’t raise any money.
Talk about a no-win scenario.
Especially when you consider all the high-profile Democrats that Christie has been keeping time with lately.
We’re not talking Camden County powerbroker Gerogre Norcross or Essex County boss Joe DiVinccnzo either.
In the video he did for the Legislative Correspondents Clutb, he got Democratic consultant James Carville, actor Alec Baldwin and even rocker Jon Bon Jovi to star in it with him.
Earlier this week , he spent the day with former Gov. Jim McGreevey.
Not bad for a Republican seeking re-election in a blue state.
But you know, there’s likely another cliché that Buono has run against.
Everybody loves a winner.
A loser, not so much. a
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Daily Muse: WHERE'S THE FLEECE?
Gov. Chriis Christie can certainly take a joke -- especially when he's the one making it. The governor's office released t his new video making fun of his trademark fleece, and it stars a plethora of guest stars, including Jon Bon Jovi, James Carville, even Alec Baldwin.
 You can watch it here.
Daily Beast has a synopsis:
In the not-quite-viral video, the governor turned actor is at first unconcerned by the news that his precious fleece has disappeared from its glass case. “The fleece was so last year,” he scoffs. “I’m back in the Time 100 most influential people in the world. Bruce is my new best friend. I’m friends with Bon Jovi and now I’m back on Morning Joe!” But he soon discovers that his newfound clout came with a fleece attached. Mika and Joe are sick of him, he can’t get into a Bruce Springsteen show, and Jon Bon Jovi won’t give him the time of day. As the seven-minute-plus video carries on, we learn that James Carville is in cahoots with Hillary Clinton, who stole the fleece but accidentally left it with Alec Baldwin, whose wife, Hilaria, adheres to the “finders keepers” rule of life. This ultimate sequence is not only funny, but it makes the point that Christie can not only take a joke, but that he’s chummy enough with some pretty public Democrats that they’d be willing to appear in this silly video of his.
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Daily Muse: CHRISTIE TACKLES HIS WEIGHT
Gov. Chris Christie is getting into fighting shape, months before his re-election campaign -- and years before any potential presidential run. The governor revealed to the New York Post that he had undergone secret lap band surgery to lose weight.
The Garden State governor agreed to the operation at the urging of family and friends after turning 50 last September. He told The Post he was thinking of his four kids and how it was time to start improving his health when he decided to have the procedure. “I’ve struggled with this issue for 20 years,” he said. “For me, this is about turning 50 and looking at my children and wanting to be there for them.” He also insisted that, contrary to what observers may say, the effort to slim down was not motivated by thoughts of a presidential bid. “It’s so much more important than that,” he said. Christie checked in to a surgery center on Feb. 16. A source said he registered under a false name. The operation included placing a silicone tube around the top of his stomach, where it restricts the amount of food he can eat at one time and makes him feel fuller, faster. “A week or two ago, I went to a steakhouse and ordered a steak and ate about a third of it and I was full,” he said of his newly tamed appetite. He declined to say how much he lost, but sources said he has already shed nearly 40 pounds. Christie has struggled with his weight for decades. He sometimes jokes about it, while other times, it’s a sensitive topic. Insiders said it was the only thing keeping the straight-talking executive from higher office. Despite Christie’s denials, political fund-raisers say that the surgery is a clear sign that he’s going to join the 2016 race — and will do whatever it takes to win. “This means he’s running for president. He’s showing people he can get his weight in control. It was the one thing holding him back,” a top political donor told The Post. Sources said Christie didn’t make the decision lightly — he even had private conversations about the operation with once-rotund Jet coach Rex Ryan. Ryan lost about 100 pounds — down from a massive 350 — after he had the same procedure done in 2010. Christie has never revealed his weight, but estimates have run from about 300 to 350 pounds. He hired the same ace laparoscopic and bariatric surgeon as Ryan — Dr. George Fielding, head of NYU Medical Center’s Weight Management Program. Christie employed cloak-and-dagger tactics to hide the operation. First, he never went into Fielding’s office for medical visits — instead, the doctor came to the governor’s house in Mendham, the sources said.
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Daily Muse: CHRISTIE'S CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGE
How much trouble is Gov. Chris Christie in with conservatives?
Not here in New Jersey, where we think it's safe to say the majority of conservatives know what they can expect if state Sen. Barbara Buono is elected. Garden State conservatives might shake their heads at Christie, might even get mad at him occasionally, but they've seen what eight years of McGreevey/Codey/Corzine can do.
But nationally, there's growing evidence that conservatives aren't ready to embrace Christie, or trust him. And it all stems from that infamous bear hug of President Barack Obama right after superstorm Sandy pummeled the state.
Christie, of course, stoked the fires again this week, when he said on "Morning Joe" how Obama had kept every promise he made to him about Sandy.
From Politico:
“No,” he said flatly on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” when asked whether he
regretted working with and lauding Obama after the devastating storm —
something that occurred right ahead of the 2012 election and outraged
some conservatives.
“Listen, the president has kept every promise that he
made,” Christie said. “What I was saying at the time was, I was asked
how the president was doing, I said, he’s doing a good job, he’s kept
his word. And so everybody knows that I have about 95 percent level
disagreement with Barack Obama on issues of principle and philosophy.
But the fact is we have a job to do. And what people expect from people
they elect is to do their job.”
Christie, a potential 2016 GOP contender, was snubbed by some in the
conservative establishment after Sandy. For example, he wasn’t invited
to speak at CPAC, a conference that typically features a who’s who in
conservative politics. But the outspoken New Jerseyan waved off that
cold reception, saying that Washington focuses too much on partisanship
rather than on “getting the job done.”
Americans “hate Washington so much because people don’t care, many of
them don’t care, about getting the job done … they care about … being
right,” Christie charged. “The president is guilty of that, the Congress
is guilty of that, what we did, the president and I did at that time
was, we saw suffering together, and when you see that, you’re either
going to step up and be responsible or you’re not. And we stepped up and
were responsible together.” You could hear conservative heads exploding after he said that.
But the reality is, giving Christie that much credit for Obama winning, frankly, gives too much credit to Christie. Even Mitt Romney, who by that logic should be the maddest at Christie, has kept up their friendship, having dinner and inviting him to speak at his upcoming conference.
And Christie's explanations play well in a general election campaign, once again branding the goernor as a pragmatic politician who gets things done, who puts people over party.
But that's not the kind of brand that would fly in a Republican primary. And that's Christie's challenge for 2016.
Take last month's Public Policy Polling survey, whcih found that more Obama voters like Christie than do Romney voters.
Of course, given that Obama won re-election, it's not necessarily a bad thing to have a large number of his voters say that they like you.
But when you're less popular among your own base than the other side, that could spell big trouble during any primary noinating battle.
TalkingPointsMemo.com notes some interesting statistics from that April poll:
The latest national survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling
yielded an interesting nugget: the Republican governor is more popular
among voters who backed Obama last year than he is with Romney voters.
A plurality of 42 percent of Obama supporters said they have a
favorable opinion of Christie, while 24 percent said they have an
unfavorable view. Romney voters, meanwhile, are pretty much split: 36
percent said they have a favorable opinion of Christie, compared with 31
percent who view him unfavorably.
Breaking down the numbers along partisan lines shows essentially the
same results. Forty-two percent of Democrats nationwide have a favorable
opinion of Christie while 22 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Among
Republican voters, 39 percent have a favorable opinion and 30 percent
have an unfavorable view.
The poll showed 39 percent of voters overall have a favorable view of
Chrstie while 28 percent have an unfavorable view. Perhaps the most
popular governor in the country, Christie boasts astronomical approval
ratings in New Jersey, a result of his stewardship after Superstorm
Sandy. That Public Policy poll, by the way, also found that Hillary Clinton was the candidate to beat in 2016. It also found that Christie did the bet among Republicans pitted against her.
So, if Christie is seriously thinking about 2016, then you'll likely see hi make some moves bound to please Republicans after he wins re-election.
But remember this: After 8 years out in the White House wilderness, what Republicans want most of all is a winner. And if Christie wins big in true blue New Jersey, and if he continues to poll well nationally, then some of that conservative angst about Christie may disappear.
Conservatives may not like Christie. But they'll do anything to stop Hillary Clinton.
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Quote of the Day
"There's no political purpose. The political purpose is to give the
people a voice. The issues facing the United States
Senate are too important not to have an elected representative making
those decisions," said Gov. Chris Christie.
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